Weekly Market Commentary: June 29 – July 3, 2026
The U.S. stock market closed out a shortened Independence Day week with the Dow Jones Industrial Average touching a near-record high — a fitting punctuation mark on what turned out to be a historic second quarter for U.S. equities.
A few things worth noting as the week wrapped up:
The jobs report changed the conversation — again
Thursday’s June employment report showed the U.S. economy added approximately 57,000 jobs last month, roughly half of what economists had expected. After months of strong labor data feeding inflation fears and rate-hike speculation, a softer jobs print had the opposite effect: bond yields fell, and stocks initially rallied as investors recalibrated the odds of a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike.
The relationship between jobs and markets remains counterintuitive to many investors: a weaker-than-expected jobs number, in this environment, is good news for markets because it suggests the economy may be cooling enough to give the Fed reason to pause — or eventually cut — rather than hike. That dynamic reflects the current moment well: markets are watching every data point for clues about what the Fed will do next.
Q2 2026 closed with historic gains
Looking at the full second quarter, U.S. equity markets posted their largest quarterly gains since 2020 — a remarkable run that came despite persistent inflation, geopolitical uncertainty, and significant volatility within individual sectors. Technology stocks in particular saw dramatic moves in both directions during the quarter.
The S&P 500 ended the first half of 2026 up more than 8% from January 1 — not bad for a year that opened with meaningful turbulence and at one point sat in negative territory for the year.
The divergence that defined the week
Even as the broad market gained, technology and semiconductor stocks remained under pressure. Questions about AI spending returns, valuation levels, and the likelihood of sustained earnings growth continued to weigh on the sector. Meanwhile, traditional, dividend-paying companies in healthcare, financials, consumer staples, and utilities gained — a continuation of the rotation theme that has characterized much of the past month.
What long-term investors should carry into the second half of the year:
The first half of 2026 was a reminder that markets can deliver strong full-period returns even while experiencing significant turbulence along the way. Investors who stayed the course through early-year volatility — rather than repositioning into cash or making dramatic changes — generally benefited from the recovery.
The second half brings its own uncertainties: Fed policy, corporate earnings, inflation data, and geopolitical developments will all play a role. But the lesson of the first half holds: the investors best positioned for the second half are those with a clear plan, appropriate diversification, and the discipline to maintain both.
Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The information provided reflects general market commentary based on publicly available information and is not tailored to the financial situation of any individual. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past market performance is not indicative of future results. Guardant Wealth Advisors, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training.
Weekly Market Commentary
Weekly Market Commentary: June 29 – July 3, 2026
The U.S. stock market closed out a shortened Independence Day week with the Dow Jones Industrial Average touching a near-record high — a fitting punctuation mark on what turned out to be a historic second quarter for U.S. equities.
A few things worth noting as the week wrapped up:
The jobs report changed the conversation — again
Thursday’s June employment report showed the U.S. economy added approximately 57,000 jobs last month, roughly half of what economists had expected. After months of strong labor data feeding inflation fears and rate-hike speculation, a softer jobs print had the opposite effect: bond yields fell, and stocks initially rallied as investors recalibrated the odds of a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike.
The relationship between jobs and markets remains counterintuitive to many investors: a weaker-than-expected jobs number, in this environment, is good news for markets because it suggests the economy may be cooling enough to give the Fed reason to pause — or eventually cut — rather than hike. That dynamic reflects the current moment well: markets are watching every data point for clues about what the Fed will do next.
Q2 2026 closed with historic gains
Looking at the full second quarter, U.S. equity markets posted their largest quarterly gains since 2020 — a remarkable run that came despite persistent inflation, geopolitical uncertainty, and significant volatility within individual sectors. Technology stocks in particular saw dramatic moves in both directions during the quarter.
The S&P 500 ended the first half of 2026 up more than 8% from January 1 — not bad for a year that opened with meaningful turbulence and at one point sat in negative territory for the year.
The divergence that defined the week
Even as the broad market gained, technology and semiconductor stocks remained under pressure. Questions about AI spending returns, valuation levels, and the likelihood of sustained earnings growth continued to weigh on the sector. Meanwhile, traditional, dividend-paying companies in healthcare, financials, consumer staples, and utilities gained — a continuation of the rotation theme that has characterized much of the past month.
What long-term investors should carry into the second half of the year:
The first half of 2026 was a reminder that markets can deliver strong full-period returns even while experiencing significant turbulence along the way. Investors who stayed the course through early-year volatility — rather than repositioning into cash or making dramatic changes — generally benefited from the recovery.
The second half brings its own uncertainties: Fed policy, corporate earnings, inflation data, and geopolitical developments will all play a role. But the lesson of the first half holds: the investors best positioned for the second half are those with a clear plan, appropriate diversification, and the discipline to maintain both.
Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The information provided reflects general market commentary based on publicly available information and is not tailored to the financial situation of any individual. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past market performance is not indicative of future results. Guardant Wealth Advisors, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training.
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